It has been a golden year for uranium. After the heavy metal received two heavy consecutive blows – the 2008 financial crisis and the Fukushima disaster, —2024 marked its stellar return, with prices more than doubling compared to the previous year. Supply concerns and nuclear energy renaissance—these are the main factors behind the spike. We spoke with some of the major Western players in the sector to get a deeper sense of the story.]
After over a decade of nuclear energy facing challenges, 20 countries, including the U.S. and Canada, announced at COP28 in Dubai plans to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. This shift is largely due to a growing recognition of the limitations of renewables to sustain the power grid on their own. As David Cates, CEO of Denison Mines, a Canadian company developing deposits in the uranium-rich Athabasca Basin, puts it: “There is a broad recognition that while renewables are desirable, they need to be paired with supplemental and reliable power sources to ensure stable energy supply.”
But the capacity of the West to meet the anticipated demand surge is uncertain. Tim Gitzel, CEO of Cameco, the world’s second largest uranium company, is confident of the company’s capacity to ensure supply: “We would first restart our closed operations and then consider
new mines. In Saskatchewan alone, there are 102 uranium companies exploring in the Athabasca Basin, indicating a resurgence in interest as market conditions improve.” Cameco is also advancing its Global Laser Enrichment project in the U.S., which has the potential to re-enrich tails and produce nuclear fuel.
Others, like the CEO of the exploration company CanAlaska Uranium, Cory Belyk, are more cautious. “To truly meet our uranium needs, there must be an investment in discovery. (...) A critical factor is incentiviza- tion, which includes long-term contracting and a supportive uranium price. Many deposits in the Western world are not economically viable below $80 per pound, so the market needs to support higher prices.” Cates echoes this concern, also pointing to the cumbersome permitting processes that slow down the development of new uranium projects: “Ex- tended timelines for approvals present challenges for Canadian uranium projects and our country’s ability to be globally competitive. Given the added federal regulation by the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, uranium mining in Canada is subject to additional regulatory oversight when compared to most other mining projects.”
To this day, the West remains far from self-sufficient, importing large uranium quantities from Kazakhstan—the world’s largest producer. The war in Ukraine and Russia’s close ties with the Asian country have casted doubts regarding its reliability as a supplier. “Our production from Kazakhstan is significant, and they are crucial for the global ura- nium supply, contributing about 45” of the world’s production,” shares Cameco’s CEO, Gitzel. David Cates from Denison Mines, however, warns that Western utilities are uneasy about the influence of Moscow over Kazakhstan, projecting that there will be more and more appetite for Western, and especially Canadian uranium. The latter country is both rich in the metal and geopolitically safe — an almost unique combination. (Australia being the other exception.) But whether this appetite can be satisfied remains an open question.